I can’t help feeling a sense of dejavu writing this, after all, we have been here before, haven’t we? However, FINALLY, it looks as if Sir Graham Brady has received the magic 48 letters of no confidence in Prime Minister Theresa May required to fire the starting pistol on a Tory leadership race.
Sadly, we are unlikely to receive confirmation until tomorrow:
Hearing that SirGraham Brady has asked to see the PM after #pmqs tmrw, and multiple sources, including senior tories and a cabinet minister, telling us tonight they believe the threshold of 48 letters has been reached – v unlikely to be any confirmation until tomorrow
— Laura Kuenssberg (@bbclaurak) December 11, 2018
If this is the case then a vote will be called on whether the Tory MP’s have confidence in May’s leadership. To win the vote of confidence May will need to win the backing of more than 50% of Tory MP’s
IF she loses the vote then the leadership election begins and May is out. Candidates, properly proposed and seconded by two Tory MP’s then slug it out with the one with the lowest number of votes being eliminated until there are two left who then are put forward to the membership vote where a simple majority decides the next leader and currently the next Prime Minister.
IF she wins then she not only stays in office but cannot be removed for another year.
UPDATE: Owen Paterson is widely reported as having put a letter in. It will be published in tomorrow’s Telegraph who are also reporting that the 48 letters are IN. Reuters are also reporting that the threshold has been passed.